Author, journalist and skilled sociologist Marcin Ogdowski speaks from in-depth expertise as a conflict correspondent to Michał Sutowski from Krytyka Polityczna on the Polish perspective to Russian aggression.
Michał Sutowski: Within the morning, after the drones entered Poland, the prime minister mentioned, ‘There isn’t a motive to panic; life will go on as regular’. Was he proper?
Marcin Ogdowski: After each assault on Ukraine – all the time extra large and deliberate – life goes again to regular. In that sense there may be nothing extraordinary in what Donald Tusk says. He’s most likely additionally implying that this isn’t an act of open conflict, as a result of it’s not, and that’s the reason he’s advising individuals to return to on a regular basis life.
Michał Sutowski: However in what sense?
Marcin Ogdowski: The dimensions of the menace is so small that there’s actually no motive to panic. The danger {that a} drone will fall on our heads after we step outdoors or after we are at residence – even in Ukraine – stays negligible when seen from the person’s perspective.
Michał Sutowski: How does what occurred on Tuesday evening into Wednesday (8-9 September) relate to the upcoming Zapad 2025 manoeuvres in Belarus?
Marcin Ogdowski: One speculation is that we could also be coping with a scenario by which our defence system and the way in which we react to threats are being examined as a part of Zapad. Such workouts have all the time been accompanied by provocations, though by no means on this scale, which is certainly unprecedented. However provocations are half and parcel of army workouts held on the border by aggressive states – Russia being a living proof.
Michał Sutowski: What can we find out about NATO allied forces being utilized in reference to the drones over Poland?
Marcin Ogdowski: Dutch F-35s, that are stationed in Poland as a part of the rotational presence, had been within the air. They’ve been right here since 1 September and can stay till 1 December. Such duties have been carried out with higher depth for the reason that outbreak of the full-scale conflict in Ukraine. Of the 4 Dutch plane in Poland, a minimum of two had been scrambled, they usually scored probably the most hits. A tanker plane with an Italian crew flew alongside them to make sure that the others within the air wouldn’t need to land unnecessarily for gasoline. As well as, we had our personal F-16s and AWACS reconnaissance plane. This array of property additionally contains the German Patriots stationed in japanese Poland. Though the launchers didn’t fireplace, their radar stations monitored the skies and fed info into the built-in air defence system.
Michał Sutowski: How can we assess the Ministry of Defence’s info coverage? Did the Ministry draw any conclusions from the missile that fell close to Przewodów?
Marcin Ogdowski: By way of the exhausting, kinetic response, it labored because it ought to. The ‘delicate’ aspect of issues, involving info, was additionally mainly appropriately. However we nonetheless have a lesson to be taught. In Ukraine, when Russian missiles or drones seem within the air, info is relayed to civilians through digital units. The commonest technique is apps that alert individuals on their telephones when one thing is approaching. We aren’t at conflict, so we don’t have this method. However maybe it’s time to introduce such options, in order that the inhabitants isn’t unaware of threats in actual time.
Michał Sutowski: We’ve alerts issued by the Authorities Safety Centre (RCB); I received one at 8:34 within the morning.
Marcin Ogdowski: These alerts are outdated, each technologically and morally, and nobody pays consideration to them anymore. However there isn’t a must reinvent the wheel when the Ukrainians have already invented it. It’s time for a government-backed app to inform individuals in threatened areas of dangers. Not with the discreet sound of a textual content message notification, however with a siren that might ‘wake the useless’.
Michał Sutowski: Incidents like this, albeit not on this scale, have been taking place for months. However individuals merely have no idea what to do.
Marcin Ogdowski: It is because your entire civil defence system in Poland is in shambles. Defence training is missing too. When individuals hear sirens, they don’t know what to do, so they simply ignore them. In fact, consciousness of the final menace has elevated; we all know that Russia is aggressive and that there’s a conflict throughout the border which may finish in varied methods. However we’ve got no stable institutional options that might allow us to say that Poles are ready for disaster eventualities.
Michał Sutowski: OK, alerts and apps are one factor. However, on the similar time, we are able to see how rapidly so-called ‘interpretations’ impressed by the Russian aspect unfold throughout the Web. So clearly, this was a wonderfully ready operation in each respect…
Marcin Ogdowski: Solely I might not conclude from the pace of those messages showing that the operation was ready upfront. The Russians run a fancy disinformation marketing campaign; they’ve the know-how, they usually know rapidly exploit one thing that emerges fairly abruptly.
Michał Sutowski: However isn’t that even worse? As a result of if that’s the case, there’s no want to organize for a particular occasion. Drones fall, and we instantly go browsing to write down that that is ‘dragging Poland into the conflict’, speculating that ‘maybe it was a Ukrainian drone in spite of everything’, and naturally, that ‘nothing appears to fall on the Hungarians or Slovaks’.
Marcin Ogdowski: Sadly, we’re merely dropping the cognitive conflict. The convenience with which these disinformation messages take maintain in our society is alarming. No particular planning is required, as a result of we’ll lap it up anyway.
Michał Sutowski: Let me ask concerning the drones themselves. I get the impression that we’re wavering a bit right here: from the stance that ‘this can be a game-changer’ and that that is now crucial weapon on the fashionable battlefield, rendering tanks out of date, to the view that drones are simply one other weapon and nothing to get enthusiastic about. The place do you stand on this concern?
Marcin Ogdowski: The drone is a substitute instrument and an adaptation to the scenario on the battlefield as a result of lack of artillery and actual air energy. For this reason such ersatz weapons as drones have been developed. This doesn’t imply that we are able to dismiss them, however fairly that we must always deal with them as simply one other sort of weapon that we’re ready to face. And I’ve the impression that that is certainly how the Polish military approaches them.
Michał Sutowski: What does that imply?
Marcin Ogdowski: Fortuitously, we’re not succumbing to ‘drone craze’ and the assumption that drones will resolve every part. We try to take a broader view: drones don’t remove the necessity for conventional air energy, armoured forces or precision artillery. All branches of the armed forces should merely be ready for the threats that drones pose.
Michał Sutowski: What concerning the argument {that a} tank prices tens of millions, whereas a drone prices solely 1000’s, and that just a few drones may simply disable such a machine?
Marcin Ogdowski: To hit the tank, these few drones must attain its location. Folks appear to assume that the conflict in Ukraine is consultant of the sort of conflict that might be fought between any NATO military and Russia, however that’s unimaginable. To make use of drones successfully in the way in which Russians do – not together with Shaheds, that are a unique matter – you want shut contact with the enemy, since these drones have a really restricted vary of 10-15 kilometres. The Russians is not going to get that near us.
Michał Sutowski: How do we all know that?
Marcin Ogdowski: As a result of NATO has far stronger air energy and artillery with an extended vary, to not point out far higher precision. We are going to power the Russians to battle from a distance of 40-50 kilometres. And so they can’t strike precisely at that distance, as a result of their artillery isn’t able to it. Their air power is simply too weak and, as talked about, their drones is not going to get that far.
Michał Sutowski: And what about these Shaheds? They fly far…
Marcin Ogdowski: That’s true. And right here, issues don’t look rosy. The Russians have the capability to mass-produce these programs. In the event that they had been to launch a thousand drones at Poland, for instance, then we may certainly have an issue. Poland is smaller than Ukraine, our infrastructure is extra concentrated and our defence response time shorter.
Michał Sutowski: That doesn’t look very promising.
Marcin Ogdowski: However allow us to not go to extremes and assume that giant numbers of Shaheds would go unchallenged. Keep in mind that we’ve got air energy, ground-based air defence programs and radio-electronic warfare programs. Furthermore, we’re on the verge of a big revolution in air defence weapons, as a result of laser programs that may convey down drones en masse will quickly be out there. As such, the Shahed isn’t a game-changer that can completely alter the foundations of the battlefield. Nonetheless, I admit that, in giant numbers, it may trigger us appreciable harm right now.
Michał Sutowski: Are these laser programs being developed wherever on the planet, or can we have already got them, or will we’ve got them quickly?
Marcin Ogdowski: Essentially the most superior programs are at the moment within the possession of Israel and the UK. The latter are our NATO allies.
Michał Sutowski: We’re listening to varied hypotheses concerning the function of the Russian drone raid. We suspect it was a take a look at of our defence programs. However how will we all know when one other 20 or 50 drones enter our airspace whether or not it’s one other ‘take a look at’ or the prelude to one thing larger?
Marcin Ogdowski: For my part, one other assault involving dozens of drones would escalate to the extent of a hybrid assault. We might then have to reply accordingly – as an Alliance and as a rustic, we’ve got the technical means to hit again on the Russians on their very own territory.
Michał Sutowski: That means?
Marcin Ogdowski: For instance, ‘dropping’ a variety of drones over the Kaliningrad Oblast or ‘by accident’ launching a missile in direction of Saint Petersburg. I’m being considerably ironic, in fact, however solely to emphasise the existence of those technical prospects. However the perfect plan of action, even now after right now’s assault, is to assist Ukraine extra. It’s there that the Russian conflict machine is being worn down. Poland also needs to care about establishing a extra sturdy air defence system with the assistance of allied forces and assets. This defend, although deployed right here, also needs to cowl western Ukraine. Put plainly, we must always shoot down Russian drones and missiles earlier than they enter Polish airspace.
