The place Will You Stand After the TikTok Ban?

A TikTok ban edges nearer to actuality following Senate and Presidential approvals (picture: Ian Hutchinson).

The music business is pondering what occurs subsequent because the ink dries on President Biden’s authorization of a Congressional invoice that features a TikTok divestiture order. DMN Professional subscribers have already parsed by way of an in depth breakdown of the potential winners and losers following a TikTok ban, because of our exhaustive white paper on the subject.

For these simply tuning in: Congress lately handed — and President Biden simply signed — a invoice that mandates that Chinese language dad or mum firm ByteDance should promote TikTok inside roughly 9 months. If that doesn’t occur, the app faces a ban in america.

The laws springs from nationwide safety issues relating to Chinese language entry to American person information and the potential for propaganda dissemination. Teenage TikTokers aren’t bought on the seriousness of the menace, although their votes solely have a lot affect right here — actually.

The regulation’s implementation will probably be extremely sophisticated. Because the New York Occasions neatly sums up: “Now the regulation faces court docket challenges, a scarcity of certified patrons, and Beijing’s hostility.”

Virtually instantly, TikTok will problem the sale mandate in court docket, arguing it violates the corporate’s and its customers’ First Modification rights. Discovering a certified purchaser with adequate funds and authorities approval additionally poses challenges, as does the technical problem of separating TikTok’s expertise from its Chinese language dad or mum firm.

Moreover, China’s function is a major issue. Chinese language authorities officers have opposed a pressured sale of TikTok or a ensuing TikTok ban. It’s attainable China might enact export restrictions that block the sale of core expertise like TikTok’s suggestion algorithm or retaliate in opposition to American corporations on account of such a sale.

General, the approaching months (and even years) promise a turbulent interval as this sale mandate unfolds. Court docket battles, the seek for a certified purchaser, and potential Chinese language interference will closely affect the final word destiny of TikTok in america.

Nevertheless, after authorized challenges and purchaser choices are exhausted, TikTok may disappear from the US-based app panorama.

A TikTok ban could be nice information for opponents like Meta, YouTube, and Snap, who are anticipated to obtain visitors onslaughts. However the growth will show extra sophisticated for the assorted sub-sectors of the music business.

In our newest white paper, DMN Professional takes an exhaustive have a look at the post-TikTok music business’s winners and losers, from the most important labels to DSPs and artists to UGC opponents. In every case, we additionally analyze the potential affect over varied time horizons — with probably important business modifications materializing over the long run.

DMN Professional subscribers can entry the report right here and begin the ‘what’s subsequent’ strategic planning. If you’re not but a subscriber, you may develop into a DMN Professional member right here.

Right here’s a peek at what’s inside.

REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction: The Submit-TikTok Music Panorama Might Give Rise to Unprecedented Adjustments – With Implications for Followers, Artists, and Firms Alike

File Labels: Majors and Indies Stand to Lose in A number of Areas (and Win in Others) With TikTok’s Ban

• • • • Graph: A Breakdown of International Recorded Music Income from UGC and Ancillary Licensing Sources
      • Graph: 2023 International Recorded Music Income by Section

Publishers: Brief-Time period Losses, Significantly for Smaller Indies, Might Make Means for Lengthy-Time period Enhancements

Songwriters: A Potential Licensing Income Upside Received’t Offset Quick Discovery Setbacks, Particularly for DIY Professionals

Artists: Submit-TikTok, Artists At All Profession Phases Will Undergo Diverse Close to-Time period Skilled Penalties

• • • • Graph: Chosen Artists’ Social Media Followers, YouTube Subscribers, and Spotify Month-to-month Listeners
        Famous person and Legendary Artists
      • Mid-Degree Artists With Substantial Followings
      • Creating and Rising Artists
      • Pre-Traction Artists
      • Graph: A 2023 Breakdown of Rising Artists by Dwelling Nation

Competing UGC Platforms: Reels, Shorts, and Others Will Be the Clear Winners

General Licensing Income: Ancillary Setbacks Apart, TikTok’s Ban Will Have a Minimal Licensing Income Impression

• • • • Graph: Common Music’s Estimated TikTok Income Versus Everlasting Downloads Income, 2020 – 2023

Non-Label Sync Platforms: The Submit-TikTok Business Might Look Completely different for Sync Platforms and Music Libraries

The Followers: Extra Than a Letdown for Followers, TikTok’s Ban Will Dramatically Have an effect on Music Discovery

DSPs: What Does a TikTok Ban Imply for Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music?

Promoters and Venues: The TikTok Ban’s Significance for Stay Music

Report Abstract: The Submit-TikTok Music Panorama’s Many Adjustments

By the Dates: A Timeline of TikTok Regulatory Scrutiny, December 2022 – April 2024

One-Sheet Infographic: The Submit-TikTok Winners & Losers